Enduring Rivalries: Theoretical Constructs and Empirical Patterns
The concept of enduring rivalries addresses the problem of repeated conflict, in particular how the outcomes of crises and wars influence the likelihood of future conflict between the same set of states. This concept relates to the most prominent approaches to war studies.
They object the assumptions of international conflict research that conflict events are independent of each other.
The conceptual components of enduring rivalries:
1) When states are engaged in an enduring rivalry, they are taking part in a competition over a scarce good, which can be intangible such as political influence.
2) Rivalries would seem to be understood in decades rather than months or years (temporal component).
3) Enduring rivalries include a consistent set of states in their domain.
Rivalries are limited to states of approximately equal power. Yet, it is incorrect to assume that power distribution remains constant throughout the rivalry.
For them, if a rivalry does not have any conflict for 10 years and a new conflict erupts, then it is a new rivalry.
The model of the spread of war (addictive contagion) assumes that the average number of conflicts in a given time period is a function of conflicting dyads in the previous time period (Davis, Duncan and Siverson-1978-AJPS).