An Evolutionary Approach To the Study of Interstate Rivalry
Article offers an evolutionary model of how the relationship between two adversaries moves toward or away from rivalry over time, emphasizing the changing context of their relations and the influence of both past events and prospect of future interaction.
Domestic politics seem likely both to be affected by rivalry, and exert an important degree of influence on foreign policy-making in rivalry situations.
In a relationship where the adversaries have been actively engaged in confronting each other for many years, they are likely to have developed certain expectations about each other, and these expectations are likely to affect actions taken toward that adversary in the future.
The results of the study show that the likelihood of recurrence increases over time with the accumulation of a longer history of conflict, and characteristics of past confrontations affect the likelihood and timing of later conflict.
Unlike Goetz and Diehl (1995), he does not talk about rapid changes for rivalries.
When there is conflict of interest between two states, leaders take a moment before making their move. Leaders look at what happened in the past between two states in order to choose their plan of action. If the relations were good, diplomacy can work. If the relations were bad, reaction will be hostile. As a second step, if hostility prevails in the history, we look at domestic politics and be a hawkish politician to the people. Second image reversed argument.